Podcast Episode
Jefferies Warns Memory Chip Prices Could Surge 50% in Q3 2026 as AI Demand Drains Supply
June 30, 2026
0:00
5:29
Jefferies warns that DRAM and NAND memory prices could jump 40-50% in Q3 2026 and keep climbing into 2027, as AI data centre demand consumes global supply. Hardware makers including MSI and Apple are already passing higher costs on to consumers, with meaningful relief unlikely before 2028.
AI Boom Sends Memory Prices Soaring
The global memory chip market is bracing for another steep climb through 2027, as artificial intelligence infrastructure consumes nearly all available production capacity from the world's major chipmakers. Jefferies Equity Research warned that DRAM and NAND memory prices could jump 40-50% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2026, followed by a further 30-40% rise in Q4. The firm projects an additional 40-45% year-over-year increase in 2027, with relief unlikely before 2028, when roughly 15-20% of new manufacturing capacity is expected to come online.A Dramatic Run-Up
The forecast builds on an already extraordinary surge. Contract prices for conventional DRAM rose 90-95% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, with Q2 moderating to 58-63%. DDR5 chip prices quadrupled from $6.84 in September 2025 to $27.20 by December. Buyers who failed to lock in supply now face cost structures repriced by 200-400% relative to 2024 levels.Hardware Makers Sound the Alarm
MSI Chairman Joseph Hsu confirmed that memory and GPU shortages will persist through 2026, though CPU supply may improve by Q3. The bottleneck stems from Nvidia, AMD, and Google consuming high-bandwidth memory capacity at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron for AI accelerators. Long-term contracts between suppliers and hyperscale data centre operators are further squeezing availability for consumer electronics.Consumers Feel the Pinch
Gartner forecasts PC prices will rise roughly 17% and smartphone prices around 13% in 2026, driven by a projected 130% surge in combined DRAM and SSD costs by year-end. The firm expects global PC shipments to fall 10.4% and smartphone shipments to drop 8.4% as buyers delay upgrades. Apple has already raised prices across its Mac and iPad lineups by $100 to $300 per device, while Elon Musk described the component surge as the biggest price jump he has ever seen. Unlike earlier boom-bust cycles, Gartner warns this shortage could extend through the end of 2027.Published June 30, 2026 at 1:13pm
